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Tutorial 07 · 5 min
How to identify high-probability opportunities
A ‘high-probability’ seasonal opportunity combines a strong average return, a high win rate, low variability, enough years of history, and a start date that’s coming up soon.
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in 3dMSFT+5.4%90%★★★★
- 1Countdown — how soon the pattern starts.
- 2The stock symbol from your watchlist.
- 3Average return for the window.
- 4Win-rate bar and quality rating.
Real-world example
On the Dashboard you spot MSFT with a +5.4% pattern, 90% win rate, 4★ rating, starting in 3 days. That’s a high-probability, timely setup worth a closer look.
Step-by-step
- 1Filter for quality: Win Rate ≥ 70% and a meaningful Avg Return (e.g. ≥ 3%).
- 2Check consistency: prefer lower Std Dev and a 4–5★ Rating.
- 3Check sample size: more years analysed = more trustworthy.
- 4Check timing: focus on Upcoming patterns starting soon (the Dashboard sorts by this).
- 5Open the chart and the year-by-year breakdown to confirm it’s consistent, not driven by one outlier year.
What to expect & how to read it
You end up with a short list of patterns that are strong, reliable, well-tested, and about to begin — the ones most worth your attention.
Common mistakes to avoid
- ✕ Acting on a single metric. A 9% average with a 50% win rate is a coin flip.
- ✕ Ignoring the current-year (‘This Year’) column — it tells you if the pattern is still behaving normally.
Tips for beginners
- ✓ The Dashboard already does most of this for you — start there and sort by Rating.
- ✓ ‘This Year’ vs the average is a quick health check: in line = the pattern is repeating.