Seasonal outlookLarge caps 5 min read

Best Seasonal Stocks for July: 8 Historically Strong Setups

June 17, 2026

Few seasonal windows are as well-known as the early-summer run in large-cap US stocks. Heading into Q2 earnings, money tends to flow back into the biggest names — and the data over the last 15 years backs it up. Below are eight stocks whose roughly mid-June to mid-July window has been historically strong, ranked by average return.

8 strong July seasonal setups

StockWindowAvg returnWin rate (15y)
Tesla (TSLA)Jun 17 – Jul 17+9.0%80%
Alphabet (GOOGL)Jun 17 – Jul 17+6.6%100%
Amazon (AMZN)Jun 17 – Jul 17+6.6%93%
Apple (AAPL)Jun 17 – Jul 17+6.0%93%
Visa (V)Jun 17 – Jul 17+5.0%93%
Meta (META)Jun 18 – Jul 18+4.4%86%
Microsoft (MSFT)Jun 17 – Jul 17+4.2%87%
JPMorgan (JPM)Jun 22 – Jul 22+4.2%93%

What stands out is the consistency: Alphabet has been positive in this window every one of the last 15 years, and Amazon, Apple, Visa and JPMorgan have all hit 93%. These aren’t obscure names — they’re the most-watched stocks in the market, which is part of why the pattern persists (predictable earnings timing and quarter-start fund flows).

Why this window tends to work

  • Pre-earnings positioning — investors build exposure ahead of Q2 reports.
  • Start-of-quarter inflows — new money is allocated at the beginning of July.
  • Index and fund rebalancing around quarter-end.
Reality check: 15 years is a modest sample, and it spans a strong decade for US tech. A 100% historical win rate is a base rate, not a guarantee — any streak can break. Use seasonality as timing context, not a standalone signal.

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Past seasonal performance does not guarantee future results. Win rates and average returns are historical base rates, not predictions. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

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