Stock spotlightSeasonality 4 min read

Apple (AAPL) Stock Seasonality: When It Has Historically Risen and Fallen

June 17, 2026

Apple (AAPL) is one of the most analysed stocks on earth, so a recurring seasonal pattern is notable. Across the last 15 years, two stretches stand out — one strongly positive, one mildly negative.

Apple's strongest seasonal window

Apple’s standout window runs from roughly June 20 to July 20: an average gain of +7.1% that has been positive in all 15 of the last 15 years (a 100% win rate). It lines up with the broader mega-cap summer run into Q2 earnings.

WindowLengthAvg returnWin rate (15y)
Jun 20 – Jul 2030 days+7.1%100%
Jun 21 – Jul 2130 days+6.5%100%
Jun 19 – Jul 1930 days+6.2%100%

Apple's historically weaker stretch

The flip side is late winter: a window around mid-February into early March has averaged about −2.4%, down in roughly two-thirds of years. It’s a much weaker, lower-conviction pattern than the summer strength — but worth knowing if you’re timing an entry.

Seasonality describes tendencies, not certainties. Apple’s summer strength is unusually consistent, but a single bad year (a macro shock, a weak product cycle) can override the pattern entirely.

See Apple's full seasonal breakdown — every window, year by year.

View AAPL seasonality

Past seasonal performance does not guarantee future results. Win rates and average returns are historical base rates, not predictions. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

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