American Airlines Group (AAL) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for AAL — the calendar windows where American Airlines Group has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on up to 10 years of price history.
AAL's strongest seasonal patterns
| Seasonal window | Direction | Avg return | Win rate | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 – Mar 24 | Bearish | -8.34% | 90% | 21d |
| Jul 12 – Aug 2 | Bearish | -6.71% | 90% | 21d |
| Jul 23 – Aug 2 | Bearish | -6.13% | 90% | 10d |
| Oct 15 – Nov 14 | Bullish | +6.08% | 90% | 30d |
| Oct 18 – Nov 17 | Bullish | +5.16% | 90% | 30d |
| Oct 31 – Nov 10 | Bullish | +4.64% | 90% | 10d |
| Nov 20 – Nov 30 | Bullish | +4.36% | 90% | 10d |
| Jun 13 – Jun 23 | Bearish | -3.64% | 90% | 10d |
| Apr 17 – Apr 27 | Bearish | -3.33% | 90% | 10d |
| Nov 16 – Nov 26 | Bullish | +3.26% | 90% | 10d |
| Feb 21 – Mar 23 | Bearish | -11.92% | 80% | 30d |
| Feb 22 – Mar 24 | Bearish | -11.07% | 80% | 30d |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore AAL seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
What is AAL stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing American Airlines Group's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where AAL has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.