Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ARI — the calendar windows where Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on up to 10 years of price history.
ARI's strongest seasonal patterns
| Seasonal window | Direction | Avg return | Win rate | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 – Jun 8 | Bullish | +9.40% | 90% | 30d |
| May 13 – Jun 3 | Bullish | +6.96% | 90% | 21d |
| May 14 – Jun 4 | Bullish | +6.95% | 90% | 21d |
| Oct 28 – Nov 27 | Bullish | +5.46% | 90% | 30d |
| Oct 29 – Nov 28 | Bullish | +5.38% | 90% | 30d |
| Oct 30 – Nov 29 | Bullish | +5.19% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 2 – Dec 2 | Bullish | +4.61% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 3 – Dec 3 | Bullish | +4.19% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 4 – Dec 4 | Bullish | +4.12% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 6 – Nov 27 | Bullish | +4.04% | 90% | 21d |
| May 31 – Jun 30 | Bullish | +3.82% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 7 – Nov 28 | Bullish | +3.74% | 90% | 21d |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ARI seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
What is ARI stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ARI has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.