Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for BND — the calendar windows where Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on up to 10 years of price history.
BND's strongest seasonal patterns
| Seasonal window | Direction | Avg return | Win rate | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 – Oct 21 | Bearish | -1.15% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 14 – Dec 14 | Bullish | +1.13% | 90% | 30d |
| Mar 14 – Apr 4 | Bullish | +1.12% | 90% | 21d |
| Nov 15 – Dec 15 | Bullish | +1.10% | 90% | 30d |
| Nov 12 – Dec 3 | Bullish | +1.05% | 90% | 21d |
| Nov 13 – Dec 4 | Bullish | +1.03% | 90% | 21d |
| Mar 12 – Apr 2 | Bullish | +1.24% | 80% | 21d |
| Sep 7 – Oct 7 | Bearish | -1.19% | 80% | 30d |
| Nov 13 – Dec 13 | Bullish | +1.17% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 8 – Oct 8 | Bearish | -1.17% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 22 – Oct 22 | Bearish | -1.09% | 80% | 30d |
| Nov 3 – Dec 3 | Bullish | +1.06% | 80% | 30d |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore BND seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
What is BND stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where BND has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.