iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for EFA — the calendar windows where iShares MSCI EAFE ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on up to 10 years of price history.
EFA's strongest seasonal patterns
| Seasonal window | Direction | Avg return | Win rate | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 – May 4 | Bullish | +2.95% | 90% | 30d |
| Jun 27 – Jul 27 | Bullish | +2.78% | 90% | 30d |
| Dec 20 – Jan 19 | Bullish | +2.48% | 90% | 30d |
| Jun 7 – Jun 17 | Bearish | -1.99% | 90% | 10d |
| May 29 – Jun 8 | Bullish | +1.98% | 90% | 10d |
| Dec 19 – Jan 9 | Bullish | +1.96% | 90% | 21d |
| Jun 4 – Jun 25 | Bearish | -1.84% | 90% | 21d |
| Jun 23 – Jul 23 | Bullish | +1.77% | 90% | 30d |
| Dec 25 – Jan 15 | Bullish | +1.75% | 90% | 21d |
| Dec 18 – Jan 8 | Bullish | +1.74% | 90% | 21d |
| May 28 – Jun 7 | Bullish | +1.44% | 90% | 10d |
| Jul 19 – Jul 29 | Bullish | +1.41% | 90% | 10d |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore EFA seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
What is EFA stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares MSCI EAFE ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where EFA has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.