iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for GOVT — the calendar windows where iShares US Treasury Bond ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on up to 10 years of price history.
GOVT's strongest seasonal patterns
| Seasonal window | Direction | Avg return | Win rate | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 – Oct 8 | Bearish | -1.25% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 21 – Oct 21 | Bearish | -1.14% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 6 – Oct 6 | Bearish | -1.10% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 22 – Oct 22 | Bearish | -1.08% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 23 – Oct 23 | Bearish | -1.03% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 7 – Oct 7 | Bearish | -1.25% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 10 – Oct 10 | Bearish | -1.14% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 9 – Oct 9 | Bearish | -1.10% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 20 – Oct 20 | Bearish | -1.05% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 11 – Oct 11 | Bearish | -1.05% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 5 – Oct 5 | Bearish | -1.01% | 80% | 30d |
| Sep 24 – Oct 24 | Bearish | -1.00% | 80% | 30d |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore GOVT seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
What is GOVT stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares US Treasury Bond ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where GOVT has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.