iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for TLT — the calendar windows where iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on up to 10 years of price history.
TLT's strongest seasonal patterns
| Seasonal window | Direction | Avg return | Win rate | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 – Oct 8 | Bearish | -3.89% | 100% | 30d |
| Jun 9 – Jun 30 | Bullish | +1.70% | 100% | 21d |
| Mar 21 – Mar 31 | Bullish | +1.63% | 100% | 10d |
| Sep 21 – Oct 21 | Bearish | -4.08% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 22 – Oct 22 | Bearish | -3.98% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 7 – Oct 7 | Bearish | -3.84% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 23 – Oct 23 | Bearish | -3.72% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 20 – Oct 20 | Bearish | -3.68% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 24 – Oct 24 | Bearish | -3.65% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 25 – Oct 25 | Bearish | -3.38% | 90% | 30d |
| Sep 19 – Oct 19 | Bearish | -3.13% | 90% | 30d |
| Oct 1 – Oct 22 | Bearish | -3.08% | 90% | 21d |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore TLT seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
What is TLT stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where TLT has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.