American Airlines Group (AAL) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for AAL — the calendar windows where American Airlines Group has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
AAL seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, AAL's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 15 – Nov 14: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +6.08% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, AAL has historically declined between Jul 23 – Aug 2, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -6.13%).
In total, our analysis finds 823 recurring seasonal windows for American Airlines Group — 433 bullish and 390 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 28 – Aug 27, opens tomorrow. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
AAL's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 91d ago | Apr 17 – Apr 27 | 10d | -3.33% | 90% | -8.61% |
| Completedended 115d ago | Mar 4 – Apr 3 | 30d | -7.46% | 80% | -13.00% |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Jul 28 – Aug 27 | 30d | -2.97% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 26d | Aug 22 – Sep 11 | 20d | +3.18% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 78d | Oct 13 – Nov 12 | 30d | +7.15% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 79d | Oct 14 – Nov 3 | 20d | +4.69% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 79d | Oct 14 – Nov 13 | 30d | +6.66% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore AAL seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
AAL seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy AAL stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, AAL's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 15 to Nov 14, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +6.08%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is AAL's strongest seasonal pattern?
AAL's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 15 – Nov 14 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +6.08%.
When has AAL historically performed worst?
AAL's weakest recurring window has been Jul 23 to Aug 2, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -6.13%.
How reliable are AAL's seasonal patterns?
Each AAL pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. AAL currently shows 823 recurring windows (433 bullish, 390 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is AAL stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing American Airlines Group's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where AAL has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.