Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) (^NDX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ^NDX — the calendar windows where Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
^NDX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, ^NDX's strongest seasonal window has been Jun 14 – Jul 14: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.63% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, ^NDX has historically declined between Sep 2 – Oct 2, falling in 7 of 10 years (average -2.05%).
In total, our analysis finds 603 recurring seasonal windows for Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) — 537 bullish and 66 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 2 – Sep 1, opens in 6 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
^NDX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 12d ago | Jul 5 – Jul 15 | 10d | +2.10% | 90% | +0.59% |
| Completedended 12d ago | Jun 25 – Jul 15 | 20d | +3.64% | 90% | +0.21% |
| Active20d left | Jul 27 – Aug 16 | 20d | +1.26% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 6d | Aug 2 – Sep 1 | 30d | +2.84% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Aug 3 – Aug 13 | 10d | +1.08% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Aug 3 – Sep 2 | 30d | +2.28% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Aug 4 – Sep 3 | 30d | +1.10% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ^NDX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
^NDX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy ^NDX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, ^NDX's strongest seasonal window starts in June: Jun 14 to Jul 14, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.63%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is ^NDX's strongest seasonal pattern?
^NDX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jun 14 – Jul 14 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.63%.
When has ^NDX historically performed worst?
^NDX's weakest recurring window has been Sep 2 to Oct 2, declining in 7 of 10 years with an average return of -2.05%.
How reliable are ^NDX's seasonal patterns?
Each ^NDX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. ^NDX currently shows 603 recurring windows (537 bullish, 66 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is ^NDX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX)'s price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ^NDX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.