Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for AAP — the calendar windows where Advance Auto Parts, Inc. has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
AAP seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, AAP's strongest seasonal window has been Jun 26 – Jul 16: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +5.16% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, AAP has historically declined between Jan 21 – Feb 10, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -3.43%).
In total, our analysis finds 749 recurring seasonal windows for Advance Auto Parts, Inc. — 364 bullish and 385 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 13 – Sep 2, opens in 17 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
AAP's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 23d ago | Jun 14 – Jul 4 | 20d | +2.11% | 80% | +1.20% |
| Completedended 24d ago | Jun 13 – Jul 3 | 20d | +2.25% | 80% | +1.20% |
| Upcomingin 17d | Aug 13 – Sep 2 | 20d | -5.42% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 17d | Aug 13 – Sep 12 | 30d | -6.30% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 46d | Sep 11 – Oct 11 | 30d | -5.22% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 58d | Sep 23 – Oct 13 | 20d | -3.12% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 59d | Sep 24 – Oct 14 | 20d | -2.75% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore AAP seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
AAP seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy AAP stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, AAP's strongest seasonal window starts in June: Jun 26 to Jul 16, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +5.16%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is AAP's strongest seasonal pattern?
AAP's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jun 26 – Jul 16 window (20-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +5.16%.
When has AAP historically performed worst?
AAP's weakest recurring window has been Jan 21 to Feb 10, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -3.43%.
How reliable are AAP's seasonal patterns?
Each AAP pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. AAP currently shows 749 recurring windows (364 bullish, 385 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is AAP stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where AAP has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.