Airbnb (ABNB) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ABNB — the calendar windows where Airbnb has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 5 years of price history. Airbnb has less than 10 years of trading history, so these patterns use all 5 available years.
ABNB seasonality at a glance
Over the last 5 years, ABNB's strongest seasonal window has been Jan 16 – Feb 15: it ended higher in 5 of 5 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +22.18% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, ABNB has historically declined between Feb 15 – Feb 25, falling in 5 of 5 years (average -10.83%).
In total, our analysis finds 865 recurring seasonal windows for Airbnb — 454 bullish and 411 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 15 – Oct 5, opens in 4 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
ABNB's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 4d ago | Aug 8 – Sep 7 | 30d | +2.98% | 80% | +2.17% |
| Completedended 45d ago | Jul 18 – Jul 28 | 10d | +4.04% | 80% | +4.88% |
| Upcomingin 4d | Sep 15 – Oct 5 | 20d | -2.78% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 5d | Sep 16 – Oct 6 | 20d | -1.73% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Sep 19 – Sep 29 | 10d | -3.24% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Sep 20 – Sep 30 | 10d | -2.91% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Sep 21 – Oct 11 | 20d | -2.89% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ABNB seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
ABNB seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy ABNB stock?
Based on the last 5 years of price data, ABNB's strongest seasonal window starts in January: Jan 16 to Feb 15, which ended higher in 5 of 5 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +22.18%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is ABNB's strongest seasonal pattern?
ABNB's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jan 16 – Feb 15 window (30-day hold): up in 5 of the last 5 years with an average move of +22.18%.
When has ABNB historically performed worst?
ABNB's weakest recurring window has been Feb 15 to Feb 25, declining in 5 of 5 years with an average return of -10.83%.
How reliable are ABNB's seasonal patterns?
Each ABNB pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 5 years it repeated in the same direction. ABNB currently shows 865 recurring windows (454 bullish, 411 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is ABNB stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Airbnb's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ABNB has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.