Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ACGL — the calendar windows where Arch Capital Group has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
ACGL seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, ACGL's strongest seasonal window has been Jul 16 – Aug 15: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.83% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, ACGL has historically declined between Jun 7 – Jun 17, falling in 10 of 10 years (average -3.67%).
In total, our analysis finds 669 recurring seasonal windows for Arch Capital Group — 527 bullish and 142 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 28 – Aug 7, opens tomorrow. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
ACGL's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 5d ago | Jun 22 – Jul 22 | 30d | +2.98% | 80% | +7.16% |
| Completedended 96d ago | Mar 23 – Apr 22 | 30d | +2.96% | 90% | +3.32% |
| Active20d left | Jul 27 – Aug 16 | 20d | +5.02% | 90% | — |
| Active30d left | Jul 27 – Aug 26 | 30d | +4.72% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Jul 28 – Aug 7 | 10d | +2.71% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Jul 28 – Aug 17 | 20d | +4.89% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Jul 28 – Aug 27 | 30d | +5.82% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ACGL seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
ACGL seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy ACGL stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, ACGL's strongest seasonal window starts in July: Jul 16 to Aug 15, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.83%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is ACGL's strongest seasonal pattern?
ACGL's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jul 16 – Aug 15 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.83%.
When has ACGL historically performed worst?
ACGL's weakest recurring window has been Jun 7 to Jun 17, declining in 10 of 10 years with an average return of -3.67%.
How reliable are ACGL's seasonal patterns?
Each ACGL pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. ACGL currently shows 669 recurring windows (527 bullish, 142 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is ACGL stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Arch Capital Group's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ACGL has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.