Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ARI — the calendar windows where Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
ARI seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, ARI's strongest seasonal window has been May 9 – Jun 8: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +9.40% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, ARI has historically declined between Sep 17 – Oct 7, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -3.88%).
In total, our analysis finds 688 recurring seasonal windows for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance — 475 bullish and 213 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 17 – Oct 7, opens in 6 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
ARI's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 36d ago | Jul 7 – Aug 6 | 30d | +2.54% | 80% | +1.51% |
| Completedended 46d ago | Jul 7 – Jul 27 | 20d | +2.92% | 80% | +1.51% |
| Upcomingin 6d | Sep 17 – Oct 7 | 20d | -3.88% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Sep 19 – Oct 19 | 30d | -3.09% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Sep 20 – Oct 20 | 30d | -2.38% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 25d | Oct 6 – Oct 16 | 10d | +1.32% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 26d | Oct 7 – Oct 17 | 10d | +2.40% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ARI seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
ARI seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy ARI stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, ARI's strongest seasonal window starts in May: May 9 to Jun 8, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +9.40%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is ARI's strongest seasonal pattern?
ARI's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the May 9 – Jun 8 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +9.40%.
When has ARI historically performed worst?
ARI's weakest recurring window has been Sep 17 to Oct 7, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -3.88%.
How reliable are ARI's seasonal patterns?
Each ARI pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. ARI currently shows 688 recurring windows (475 bullish, 213 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is ARI stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ARI has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.