Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for BND — the calendar windows where Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
BND seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, BND's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 14 – Dec 14: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +1.13% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, BND has historically declined between Sep 21 – Oct 21, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -1.15%).
In total, our analysis finds 17 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — 10 bullish and 7 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 7 – Oct 7, opens in 42 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
BND's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 115d ago | Mar 14 – Apr 3 | 20d | +1.04% | 90% | +0.38% |
| Completedended 117d ago | Mar 12 – Apr 1 | 20d | +1.20% | 80% | +0.07% |
| Upcomingin 42d | Sep 7 – Oct 7 | 30d | -1.19% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 43d | Sep 8 – Oct 8 | 30d | -1.17% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 45d | Sep 10 – Oct 10 | 30d | -1.06% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 56d | Sep 21 – Oct 21 | 30d | -1.15% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 57d | Sep 22 – Oct 22 | 30d | -1.09% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore BND seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
BND seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy BND stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, BND's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 14 to Dec 14, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +1.13%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is BND's strongest seasonal pattern?
BND's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 14 – Dec 14 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +1.13%.
When has BND historically performed worst?
BND's weakest recurring window has been Sep 21 to Oct 21, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -1.15%.
How reliable are BND's seasonal patterns?
Each BND pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. BND currently shows 17 recurring windows (10 bullish, 7 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is BND stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where BND has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.