Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for CBA.AX — the calendar windows where Commonwealth Bank has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
CBA.AX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, CBA.AX's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 11 – Nov 10: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +4.68% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, CBA.AX has historically declined between Mar 4 – Mar 24, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -2.99%).
In total, our analysis finds 571 recurring seasonal windows for Commonwealth Bank — 455 bullish and 116 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 31 – Aug 30, opens in 4 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
CBA.AX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 14 – Jul 24 | 10d | +1.18% | 90% | +2.79% |
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +2.76% | 80% | +5.61% |
| Upcomingin 4d | Jul 31 – Aug 30 | 30d | -1.37% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 5d | Aug 1 – Aug 31 | 30d | -1.38% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 14d | Aug 10 – Aug 30 | 20d | -1.03% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 14d | Aug 10 – Sep 9 | 30d | -2.17% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 15d | Aug 11 – Sep 10 | 30d | -1.96% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore CBA.AX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
CBA.AX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy CBA.AX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, CBA.AX's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 11 to Nov 10, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +4.68%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is CBA.AX's strongest seasonal pattern?
CBA.AX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 11 – Nov 10 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.68%.
When has CBA.AX historically performed worst?
CBA.AX's weakest recurring window has been Mar 4 to Mar 24, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -2.99%.
How reliable are CBA.AX's seasonal patterns?
Each CBA.AX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. CBA.AX currently shows 571 recurring windows (455 bullish, 116 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is CBA.AX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Commonwealth Bank's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where CBA.AX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.