Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for CBSH — the calendar windows where Commerce Bancshares has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
CBSH seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, CBSH's strongest seasonal window has been Mar 23 – Apr 2: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.09% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, CBSH has historically declined between Jun 10 – Jun 20, falling in 10 of 10 years (average -2.81%).
In total, our analysis finds 607 recurring seasonal windows for Commerce Bancshares — 378 bullish and 229 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 21 – Sep 10, opens in 25 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
CBSH's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 4 – Jul 24 | 20d | +2.54% | 80% | +1.07% |
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +5.17% | 90% | +3.59% |
| Upcomingin 25d | Aug 21 – Sep 10 | 20d | -1.30% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 26d | Aug 22 – Sep 11 | 20d | -1.01% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 26d | Aug 22 – Sep 21 | 30d | -1.41% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 29d | Aug 25 – Sep 14 | 20d | -1.16% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 30d | Aug 26 – Sep 25 | 30d | -1.54% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore CBSH seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
CBSH seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy CBSH stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, CBSH's strongest seasonal window starts in March: Mar 23 to Apr 2, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.09%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is CBSH's strongest seasonal pattern?
CBSH's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Mar 23 – Apr 2 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.09%.
When has CBSH historically performed worst?
CBSH's weakest recurring window has been Jun 10 to Jun 20, declining in 10 of 10 years with an average return of -2.81%.
How reliable are CBSH's seasonal patterns?
Each CBSH pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. CBSH currently shows 607 recurring windows (378 bullish, 229 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is CBSH stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Commerce Bancshares's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where CBSH has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.