Carvana (CVNA) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for CVNA — the calendar windows where Carvana has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 9 years of price history. Carvana has less than 10 years of trading history, so these patterns use all 9 available years.
CVNA seasonality at a glance
Over the last 9 years, CVNA's strongest seasonal window has been May 24 – Jun 23: it ended higher in 9 of 9 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +36.03% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, CVNA has historically declined between Dec 17 – Jan 6, falling in 8 of 8 years (average -10.91%).
In total, our analysis finds 1003 recurring seasonal windows for Carvana — 725 bullish and 278 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 29 – Sep 28, opens in 33 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
CVNA's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 11d ago | Jun 16 – Jul 16 | 30d | +18.45% | 89% | +0.89% |
| Completedended 12d ago | Jun 25 – Jul 15 | 20d | +12.44% | 89% | +6.63% |
| Active30d left | Jul 27 – Aug 26 | 30d | +15.36% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 33d | Aug 29 – Sep 28 | 30d | -7.01% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 57d | Sep 22 – Oct 12 | 20d | -12.59% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 58d | Sep 23 – Oct 13 | 20d | -10.97% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 101d | Nov 5 – Nov 15 | 10d | +4.11% | 100% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore CVNA seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
CVNA seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy CVNA stock?
Based on the last 9 years of price data, CVNA's strongest seasonal window starts in May: May 24 to Jun 23, which ended higher in 9 of 9 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +36.03%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is CVNA's strongest seasonal pattern?
CVNA's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the May 24 – Jun 23 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 9 years with an average move of +36.03%.
When has CVNA historically performed worst?
CVNA's weakest recurring window has been Dec 17 to Jan 6, declining in 8 of 8 years with an average return of -10.91%.
How reliable are CVNA's seasonal patterns?
Each CVNA pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 9 years it repeated in the same direction. CVNA currently shows 1003 recurring windows (725 bullish, 278 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is CVNA stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Carvana's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where CVNA has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.