VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for GDX — the calendar windows where VanEck Gold Miners ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
GDX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, GDX's strongest seasonal window has been Mar 11 – Apr 10: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +9.40% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, GDX has historically declined between Feb 18 – Feb 28, falling in 10 of 10 years (average -4.22%).
In total, our analysis finds 695 recurring seasonal windows for VanEck Gold Miners ETF — 535 bullish and 160 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 19 – Oct 9, opens in 8 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
GDX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 38d ago | Jul 25 – Aug 4 | 10d | +2.55% | 80% | +3.58% |
| Completedended 133d ago | Apr 21 – May 1 | 10d | -2.00% | 80% | -6.32% |
| Upcomingin 8d | Sep 19 – Oct 9 | 20d | -1.98% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Sep 21 – Oct 1 | 10d | -1.74% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 16d | Sep 27 – Oct 17 | 20d | +3.57% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 17d | Sep 28 – Oct 18 | 20d | +3.10% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 19d | Sep 30 – Oct 20 | 20d | +3.61% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore GDX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
GDX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy GDX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, GDX's strongest seasonal window starts in March: Mar 11 to Apr 10, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +9.40%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is GDX's strongest seasonal pattern?
GDX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Mar 11 – Apr 10 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +9.40%.
When has GDX historically performed worst?
GDX's weakest recurring window has been Feb 18 to Feb 28, declining in 10 of 10 years with an average return of -4.22%.
How reliable are GDX's seasonal patterns?
Each GDX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. GDX currently shows 695 recurring windows (535 bullish, 160 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is GDX stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing VanEck Gold Miners ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where GDX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.