iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for GOVT — the calendar windows where iShares US Treasury Bond ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
GOVT's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active30d left | Sep 11 – Oct 11 | 30d | -1.05% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Sep 20 – Oct 20 | 30d | -1.05% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Sep 21 – Oct 21 | 30d | -1.14% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 11d | Sep 22 – Oct 22 | 30d | -1.08% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 12d | Sep 23 – Oct 23 | 30d | -1.03% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore GOVT seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
GOVT seasonality FAQ
When has GOVT historically performed worst?
GOVT's weakest recurring window has been Sep 8 to Oct 8, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -1.25%.
How reliable are GOVT's seasonal patterns?
Each GOVT pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. GOVT currently shows 12 recurring windows (0 bullish, 12 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is GOVT stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares US Treasury Bond ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where GOVT has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.