Harley-Davidson (HOG) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for HOG — the calendar windows where Harley-Davidson has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
HOG seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, HOG's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 21 – Dec 1: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +3.88% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, HOG has historically declined between Sep 14 – Oct 14, falling in 10 of 10 years (average -5.83%).
In total, our analysis finds 775 recurring seasonal windows for Harley-Davidson — 408 bullish and 367 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 30 – Aug 9, opens in 3 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
HOG's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 45d ago | May 23 – Jun 12 | 20d | +1.21% | 80% | +8.88% |
| Completedended 49d ago | May 29 – Jun 8 | 10d | +4.37% | 80% | +3.82% |
| Upcomingin 3d | Jul 30 – Aug 9 | 10d | -3.11% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 19d | Aug 15 – Sep 14 | 30d | +3.08% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 41d | Sep 6 – Oct 6 | 30d | -3.63% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 42d | Sep 7 – Oct 7 | 30d | -4.10% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 44d | Sep 9 – Oct 9 | 30d | -5.41% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore HOG seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
HOG seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy HOG stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, HOG's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 21 to Dec 1, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +3.88%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is HOG's strongest seasonal pattern?
HOG's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 21 – Dec 1 window (10-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.88%.
When has HOG historically performed worst?
HOG's weakest recurring window has been Sep 14 to Oct 14, declining in 10 of 10 years with an average return of -5.83%.
How reliable are HOG's seasonal patterns?
Each HOG pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. HOG currently shows 775 recurring windows (408 bullish, 367 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is HOG stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Harley-Davidson's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where HOG has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.