iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for IAU — the calendar windows where iShares Gold Trust has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
IAU seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, IAU's strongest seasonal window has been Dec 14 – Jan 13: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.47% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, IAU has historically declined between Apr 21 – May 1, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -1.38%).
In total, our analysis finds 431 recurring seasonal windows for iShares Gold Trust — 422 bullish and 9 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 19 – Aug 29, opens in 23 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
IAU's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 87d ago | Apr 21 – May 1 | 10d | -1.38% | 80% | -1.50% |
| Completedended 96d ago | Apr 2 – Apr 22 | 20d | +2.29% | 80% | +1.42% |
| Upcomingin 23d | Aug 19 – Aug 29 | 10d | +1.44% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 42d | Sep 7 – Sep 27 | 20d | -1.02% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 60d | Sep 25 – Oct 25 | 30d | +1.75% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 61d | Sep 26 – Oct 26 | 30d | +1.91% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 62d | Sep 27 – Oct 17 | 20d | +1.78% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore IAU seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
IAU seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy IAU stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, IAU's strongest seasonal window starts in December: Dec 14 to Jan 13, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.47%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is IAU's strongest seasonal pattern?
IAU's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Dec 14 – Jan 13 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.47%.
When has IAU historically performed worst?
IAU's weakest recurring window has been Apr 21 to May 1, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -1.38%.
How reliable are IAU's seasonal patterns?
Each IAU pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. IAU currently shows 431 recurring windows (422 bullish, 9 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is IAU stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares Gold Trust's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where IAU has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.