iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for IEFA — the calendar windows where iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
IEFA seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, IEFA's strongest seasonal window has been Dec 20 – Dec 30: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.11% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, IEFA has historically declined between Jun 5 – Jun 25, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -2.02%).
In total, our analysis finds 469 recurring seasonal windows for iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF — 365 bullish and 104 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 20 – Sep 19, opens in 24 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
IEFA's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +2.19% | 80% | +0.45% |
| Completedended 4d ago | Jun 23 – Jul 23 | 30d | +1.85% | 90% | +0.30% |
| Upcomingin 24d | Aug 20 – Sep 19 | 30d | +1.07% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 91d | Oct 26 – Nov 5 | 10d | +1.60% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 96d | Oct 31 – Nov 10 | 10d | +2.58% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 104d | Nov 8 – Dec 8 | 30d | +2.01% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 105d | Nov 9 – Dec 9 | 30d | +1.93% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore IEFA seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
IEFA seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy IEFA stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, IEFA's strongest seasonal window starts in December: Dec 20 to Dec 30, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.11%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is IEFA's strongest seasonal pattern?
IEFA's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Dec 20 – Dec 30 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +1.11%.
When has IEFA historically performed worst?
IEFA's weakest recurring window has been Jun 5 to Jun 25, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -2.02%.
How reliable are IEFA's seasonal patterns?
Each IEFA pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. IEFA currently shows 469 recurring windows (365 bullish, 104 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is IEFA stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where IEFA has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.