McDonald's (MCD) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for MCD — the calendar windows where McDonald's has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
MCD seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, MCD's strongest seasonal window has been Apr 4 – May 4: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.73% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, MCD has historically declined between Jun 9 – Jun 19, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -1.73%).
In total, our analysis finds 540 recurring seasonal windows for McDonald's — 442 bullish and 98 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Oct 27 – Nov 26, opens tomorrow. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
MCD's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 5d ago | Oct 11 – Oct 21 | 10d | +2.17% | 90% | +4.68% |
| Completedended 23d ago | Sep 23 – Oct 3 | 10d | -1.18% | 80% | -2.70% |
| Active20d left | Oct 26 – Nov 15 | 20d | +2.57% | 80% | — |
| Active30d left | Oct 26 – Nov 25 | 30d | +4.12% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Oct 27 – Nov 26 | 30d | +3.33% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 2d | Oct 28 – Nov 7 | 10d | +1.83% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 2d | Oct 28 – Nov 27 | 30d | +3.40% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore MCD seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
MCD seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy MCD stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, MCD's strongest seasonal window starts in April: Apr 4 to May 4, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.73%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is MCD's strongest seasonal pattern?
MCD's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Apr 4 – May 4 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.73%.
When has MCD historically performed worst?
MCD's weakest recurring window has been Jun 9 to Jun 19, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -1.73%.
How reliable are MCD's seasonal patterns?
Each MCD pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. MCD currently shows 540 recurring windows (442 bullish, 98 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is MCD stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing McDonald's's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where MCD has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.