Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for MPC — the calendar windows where Marathon Petroleum has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
MPC seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, MPC's strongest seasonal window has been Jul 18 – Jul 28: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.27% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, MPC has historically declined between Jun 7 – Jun 27, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -4.47%).
In total, our analysis finds 800 recurring seasonal windows for Marathon Petroleum — 615 bullish and 185 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 5 – Aug 25, opens in 9 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
MPC's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 14 – Jul 24 | 10d | +2.83% | 80% | +2.92% |
| Completedended 4d ago | Jun 23 – Jul 23 | 30d | +1.95% | 80% | +25.65% |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Aug 25 | 20d | +3.29% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +3.60% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Aug 6 – Aug 26 | 20d | +2.67% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 13d | Aug 9 – Sep 8 | 30d | +3.38% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 14d | Aug 10 – Aug 30 | 20d | +3.53% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore MPC seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
MPC seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy MPC stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, MPC's strongest seasonal window starts in July: Jul 18 to Jul 28, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.27%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is MPC's strongest seasonal pattern?
MPC's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jul 18 – Jul 28 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.27%.
When has MPC historically performed worst?
MPC's weakest recurring window has been Jun 7 to Jun 27, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -4.47%.
How reliable are MPC's seasonal patterns?
Each MPC pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. MPC currently shows 800 recurring windows (615 bullish, 185 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is MPC stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Marathon Petroleum's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where MPC has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.