Merck & Co. (MRK) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for MRK — the calendar windows where Merck & Co. has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
MRK seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, MRK's strongest seasonal window has been Aug 2 – Aug 22: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +4.19% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, MRK has historically declined between Feb 2 – Feb 12, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -2.73%).
In total, our analysis finds 597 recurring seasonal windows for Merck & Co. — 472 bullish and 125 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 28 – Aug 17, opens tomorrow. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
MRK's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 20d ago | Jun 17 – Jul 7 | 20d | +2.56% | 80% | +11.63% |
| Completedended 21d ago | Jun 16 – Jul 6 | 20d | +2.23% | 80% | +10.08% |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Jul 28 – Aug 17 | 20d | +1.96% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 2d | Jul 29 – Aug 18 | 20d | +1.98% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 3d | Jul 30 – Aug 19 | 20d | +3.26% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 4d | Jul 31 – Aug 20 | 20d | +3.79% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 5d | Aug 1 – Aug 11 | 10d | +1.19% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore MRK seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
MRK seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy MRK stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, MRK's strongest seasonal window starts in August: Aug 2 to Aug 22, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +4.19%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is MRK's strongest seasonal pattern?
MRK's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Aug 2 – Aug 22 window (20-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.19%.
When has MRK historically performed worst?
MRK's weakest recurring window has been Feb 2 to Feb 12, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -2.73%.
How reliable are MRK's seasonal patterns?
Each MRK pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. MRK currently shows 597 recurring windows (472 bullish, 125 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is MRK stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Merck & Co.'s price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where MRK has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.