Moderna (MRNA) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for MRNA — the calendar windows where Moderna has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 7 years of price history. Moderna has less than 10 years of trading history, so these patterns use all 7 available years.
MRNA seasonality at a glance
Over the last 7 years, MRNA's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 14 – Dec 14: it ended higher in 7 of 7 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +21.66% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, MRNA has historically declined between Jul 23 – Aug 2, falling in 7 of 7 years (average -10.30%).
In total, our analysis finds 933 recurring seasonal windows for Moderna — 537 bullish and 396 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 16 – Sep 26, opens in 5 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
MRNA's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 30d ago | Jul 13 – Aug 12 | 30d | -3.10% | 86% | -4.98% |
| Completedended 40d ago | Jul 23 – Aug 2 | 10d | -10.30% | 100% | -3.86% |
| Upcomingin 5d | Sep 16 – Sep 26 | 10d | -6.01% | 86% | — |
| Upcomingin 6d | Sep 17 – Sep 27 | 10d | -6.82% | 86% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Sep 18 – Sep 28 | 10d | -6.42% | 86% | — |
| Upcomingin 54d | Nov 4 – Dec 4 | 30d | +22.33% | 86% | — |
| Upcomingin 55d | Nov 5 – Nov 25 | 20d | +12.30% | 86% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore MRNA seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
MRNA seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy MRNA stock?
Based on the last 7 years of price data, MRNA's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 14 to Dec 14, which ended higher in 7 of 7 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +21.66%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is MRNA's strongest seasonal pattern?
MRNA's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 14 – Dec 14 window (30-day hold): up in 7 of the last 7 years with an average move of +21.66%.
When has MRNA historically performed worst?
MRNA's weakest recurring window has been Jul 23 to Aug 2, declining in 7 of 7 years with an average return of -10.30%.
How reliable are MRNA's seasonal patterns?
Each MRNA pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 7 years it repeated in the same direction. MRNA currently shows 933 recurring windows (537 bullish, 396 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is MRNA stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Moderna's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where MRNA has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.