Morgan Stanley (MS) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for MS — the calendar windows where Morgan Stanley has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
MS seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, MS's strongest seasonal window has been Jun 27 – Jul 27: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +8.92% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, MS has historically declined between Mar 1 – Mar 31, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -5.31%).
In total, our analysis finds 780 recurring seasonal windows for Morgan Stanley — 598 bullish and 182 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 12 – Oct 2, opens tomorrow. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
MS's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 7d ago | Aug 25 – Sep 4 | 10d | +1.11% | 80% | +0.44% |
| Completedended 12d ago | Aug 20 – Aug 30 | 10d | +2.10% | 90% | +3.53% |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Sep 12 – Oct 2 | 20d | -2.47% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 15d | Sep 26 – Oct 26 | 30d | +2.70% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 18d | Sep 29 – Oct 29 | 30d | +3.16% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 19d | Sep 30 – Oct 30 | 30d | +3.22% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 20d | Oct 1 – Oct 21 | 20d | +3.02% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore MS seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
MS seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy MS stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, MS's strongest seasonal window starts in June: Jun 27 to Jul 27, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +8.92%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is MS's strongest seasonal pattern?
MS's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jun 27 – Jul 27 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +8.92%.
When has MS historically performed worst?
MS's weakest recurring window has been Mar 1 to Mar 31, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -5.31%.
How reliable are MS's seasonal patterns?
Each MS pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. MS currently shows 780 recurring windows (598 bullish, 182 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is MS stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Morgan Stanley's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where MS has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.