Microsoft (MSFT) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for MSFT — the calendar windows where Microsoft has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
MSFT seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, MSFT's strongest seasonal window has been Jun 14 – Jul 14: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +5.46% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, MSFT has historically declined between Dec 28 – Jan 7, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -2.23%).
In total, our analysis finds 697 recurring seasonal windows for Microsoft — 618 bullish and 79 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 24 – Oct 24, opens in 13 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
MSFT's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 1d ago | Aug 31 – Sep 10 | 10d | -1.70% | 80% | -3.08% |
| Completedended 2d ago | Aug 30 – Sep 9 | 10d | -1.85% | 80% | -4.26% |
| Upcomingin 13d | Sep 24 – Oct 24 | 30d | +2.28% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 14d | Sep 25 – Oct 25 | 30d | +3.11% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 16d | Sep 27 – Oct 27 | 30d | +3.06% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 19d | Sep 30 – Oct 30 | 30d | +3.53% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 21d | Oct 2 – Oct 22 | 20d | +2.57% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore MSFT seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
MSFT seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy MSFT stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, MSFT's strongest seasonal window starts in June: Jun 14 to Jul 14, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +5.46%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is MSFT's strongest seasonal pattern?
MSFT's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jun 14 – Jul 14 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +5.46%.
When has MSFT historically performed worst?
MSFT's weakest recurring window has been Dec 28 to Jan 7, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -2.23%.
How reliable are MSFT's seasonal patterns?
Each MSFT pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. MSFT currently shows 697 recurring windows (618 bullish, 79 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is MSFT stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Microsoft's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where MSFT has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.