O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ORLY — the calendar windows where O’Reilly Automotive has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
ORLY seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, ORLY's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 1 – Dec 1: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +5.44% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, ORLY has historically declined between Sep 28 – Oct 8, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -1.31%).
In total, our analysis finds 539 recurring seasonal windows for O’Reilly Automotive — 484 bullish and 55 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 16 – Sep 26, opens in 5 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
ORLY's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 18d ago | Jul 25 – Aug 24 | 30d | +2.79% | 80% | +3.75% |
| Completedended 22d ago | Jul 21 – Aug 20 | 30d | +4.59% | 80% | +1.26% |
| Upcomingin 5d | Sep 16 – Sep 26 | 10d | +1.04% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Sep 18 – Sep 28 | 10d | +1.54% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Sep 18 – Oct 18 | 30d | +2.52% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Sep 19 – Sep 29 | 10d | +1.84% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Sep 21 – Oct 1 | 10d | +1.49% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ORLY seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
ORLY seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy ORLY stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, ORLY's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 1 to Dec 1, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +5.44%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is ORLY's strongest seasonal pattern?
ORLY's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 1 – Dec 1 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +5.44%.
When has ORLY historically performed worst?
ORLY's weakest recurring window has been Sep 28 to Oct 8, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -1.31%.
How reliable are ORLY's seasonal patterns?
Each ORLY pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. ORLY currently shows 539 recurring windows (484 bullish, 55 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is ORLY stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing O’Reilly Automotive's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ORLY has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.