Philip Morris International (PM) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for PM — the calendar windows where Philip Morris International has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
PM seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, PM's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 8 – Oct 18: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.97% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, PM has historically declined between Sep 12 – Oct 2, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -3.34%).
In total, our analysis finds 569 recurring seasonal windows for Philip Morris International — 426 bullish and 143 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 8 – Aug 18, opens in 12 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
PM's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 9d ago | Jun 28 – Jul 18 | 20d | +2.21% | 80% | +6.75% |
| Completedended 11d ago | Jul 6 – Jul 16 | 10d | +1.36% | 80% | +2.75% |
| Upcomingin 12d | Aug 8 – Aug 18 | 10d | +1.03% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 34d | Aug 30 – Sep 29 | 30d | -1.76% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 35d | Aug 31 – Sep 30 | 30d | -2.15% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 36d | Sep 1 – Oct 1 | 30d | -2.12% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 37d | Sep 2 – Sep 22 | 20d | -1.16% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore PM seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
PM seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy PM stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, PM's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 8 to Oct 18, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.97%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is PM's strongest seasonal pattern?
PM's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 8 – Oct 18 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +1.97%.
When has PM historically performed worst?
PM's weakest recurring window has been Sep 12 to Oct 2, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -3.34%.
How reliable are PM's seasonal patterns?
Each PM pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. PM currently shows 569 recurring windows (426 bullish, 143 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is PM stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Philip Morris International's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where PM has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.