Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for RIO.AX — the calendar windows where Rio Tinto has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
RIO.AX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, RIO.AX's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 21 – Dec 21: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +7.74% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, RIO.AX has historically declined between Feb 18 – Feb 28, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -3.75%).
In total, our analysis finds 778 recurring seasonal windows for Rio Tinto — 588 bullish and 190 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 1 – Aug 31, opens in 5 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
RIO.AX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 31d ago | Jun 16 – Jun 26 | 10d | -2.47% | 90% | -7.99% |
| Completedended 32d ago | Jun 15 – Jun 25 | 10d | -2.26% | 80% | -10.21% |
| Active20d left | Jul 27 – Aug 16 | 20d | -3.74% | 80% | — |
| Active30d left | Jul 27 – Aug 26 | 30d | -3.42% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 5d | Aug 1 – Aug 31 | 30d | -2.71% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Aug 15 | 10d | -1.79% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Aug 6 – Aug 16 | 10d | -2.37% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore RIO.AX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
RIO.AX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy RIO.AX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, RIO.AX's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 21 to Dec 21, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +7.74%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is RIO.AX's strongest seasonal pattern?
RIO.AX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 21 – Dec 21 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +7.74%.
When has RIO.AX historically performed worst?
RIO.AX's weakest recurring window has been Feb 18 to Feb 28, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -3.75%.
How reliable are RIO.AX's seasonal patterns?
Each RIO.AX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. RIO.AX currently shows 778 recurring windows (588 bullish, 190 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is RIO.AX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Rio Tinto's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where RIO.AX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.