Starbucks (SBUX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for SBUX — the calendar windows where Starbucks has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
SBUX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, SBUX's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 31 – Nov 30: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +9.04% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, SBUX has historically declined between Dec 13 – Dec 23, falling in 10 of 10 years (average -3.86%).
In total, our analysis finds 678 recurring seasonal windows for Starbucks — 413 bullish and 265 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 22 – Sep 1, opens in 26 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
SBUX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 6d ago | Jul 1 – Jul 21 | 20d | +2.82% | 80% | +1.03% |
| Completedended 7d ago | Jun 30 – Jul 20 | 20d | +3.41% | 90% | +2.56% |
| Active10d left | Jul 27 – Aug 6 | 10d | -2.06% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 26d | Aug 22 – Sep 1 | 10d | +2.17% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 27d | Aug 23 – Sep 2 | 10d | +2.43% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 46d | Sep 11 – Oct 11 | 30d | -2.08% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 49d | Sep 14 – Oct 4 | 20d | -1.82% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore SBUX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
SBUX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy SBUX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, SBUX's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 31 to Nov 30, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +9.04%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is SBUX's strongest seasonal pattern?
SBUX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 31 – Nov 30 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +9.04%.
When has SBUX historically performed worst?
SBUX's weakest recurring window has been Dec 13 to Dec 23, declining in 10 of 10 years with an average return of -3.86%.
How reliable are SBUX's seasonal patterns?
Each SBUX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. SBUX currently shows 678 recurring windows (413 bullish, 265 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is SBUX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Starbucks's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where SBUX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.