Shopify (SHOP.TO) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for SHOP.TO — the calendar windows where Shopify has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
SHOP.TO seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, SHOP.TO's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 9 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +12.91% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, SHOP.TO has historically declined between Mar 29 – Apr 8, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -3.96%).
In total, our analysis finds 883 recurring seasonal windows for Shopify — 730 bullish and 153 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 19 – Sep 29, opens in 8 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
SHOP.TO's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 9d ago | Aug 3 – Sep 2 | 30d | +8.85% | 90% | +19.69% |
| Completedended 10d ago | Aug 2 – Sep 1 | 30d | +10.72% | 90% | +18.54% |
| Upcomingin 8d | Sep 19 – Sep 29 | 10d | -2.81% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 25d | Oct 6 – Oct 26 | 20d | -1.86% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 28d | Oct 9 – Oct 19 | 10d | -1.22% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 37d | Oct 18 – Nov 17 | 30d | +10.21% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 38d | Oct 19 – Nov 18 | 30d | +11.57% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore SHOP.TO seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
SHOP.TO seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy SHOP.TO stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, SHOP.TO's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 9 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +12.91%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is SHOP.TO's strongest seasonal pattern?
SHOP.TO's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 9 – Nov 29 window (20-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +12.91%.
When has SHOP.TO historically performed worst?
SHOP.TO's weakest recurring window has been Mar 29 to Apr 8, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -3.96%.
How reliable are SHOP.TO's seasonal patterns?
Each SHOP.TO pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. SHOP.TO currently shows 883 recurring windows (730 bullish, 153 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is SHOP.TO stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Shopify's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where SHOP.TO has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.