VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for SMH — the calendar windows where VanEck Semiconductor ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
SMH seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, SMH's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 19 – Nov 8: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +6.00% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, SMH has historically declined between Apr 1 – Apr 21, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -3.04%).
In total, our analysis finds 698 recurring seasonal windows for VanEck Semiconductor ETF — 640 bullish and 58 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 2 – Sep 1, opens in 6 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
SMH's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 13d ago | Jul 4 – Jul 14 | 10d | +3.53% | 90% | +1.35% |
| Completedended 15d ago | Jul 2 – Jul 12 | 10d | +3.06% | 100% | +3.16% |
| Upcomingin 6d | Aug 2 – Sep 1 | 30d | +2.55% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Aug 3 – Sep 2 | 30d | +2.16% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +1.08% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Aug 6 – Sep 5 | 30d | +1.00% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 14d | Aug 10 – Aug 30 | 20d | +2.08% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore SMH seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
SMH seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy SMH stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, SMH's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 19 to Nov 8, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +6.00%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is SMH's strongest seasonal pattern?
SMH's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 19 – Nov 8 window (20-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +6.00%.
When has SMH historically performed worst?
SMH's weakest recurring window has been Apr 1 to Apr 21, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -3.04%.
How reliable are SMH's seasonal patterns?
Each SMH pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. SMH currently shows 698 recurring windows (640 bullish, 58 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is SMH stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing VanEck Semiconductor ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where SMH has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.