Schwab US Aggregate Bond Index Fund (SWAGX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for SWAGX — the calendar windows where Schwab US Aggregate Bond Index Fund has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 9 years of price history. Schwab US Aggregate Bond Index Fund has less than 10 years of trading history, so these patterns use all 9 available years.
SWAGX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 9 years, SWAGX's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 3 – Dec 3: it ended higher in 9 of 9 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.48% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, SWAGX has historically declined between Oct 1 – Oct 21, falling in 8 of 9 years (average -1.13%).
In total, our analysis finds 60 recurring seasonal windows for Schwab US Aggregate Bond Index Fund — 40 bullish and 20 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 7 – Sep 27, opens in 42 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
SWAGX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upcomingin 42d | Sep 7 – Sep 27 | 20d | -1.05% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 59d | Sep 24 – Oct 24 | 30d | -1.04% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 66d | Oct 1 – Oct 21 | 20d | -1.13% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 67d | Oct 2 – Oct 22 | 20d | -1.05% | 89% | — |
| Upcomingin 93d | Oct 28 – Nov 27 | 30d | +1.06% | 100% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore SWAGX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
SWAGX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy SWAGX stock?
Based on the last 9 years of price data, SWAGX's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 3 to Dec 3, which ended higher in 9 of 9 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.48%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is SWAGX's strongest seasonal pattern?
SWAGX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 3 – Dec 3 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 9 years with an average move of +1.48%.
When has SWAGX historically performed worst?
SWAGX's weakest recurring window has been Oct 1 to Oct 21, declining in 8 of 9 years with an average return of -1.13%.
How reliable are SWAGX's seasonal patterns?
Each SWAGX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 9 years it repeated in the same direction. SWAGX currently shows 60 recurring windows (40 bullish, 20 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is SWAGX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Schwab US Aggregate Bond Index Fund's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where SWAGX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.