Toll Brothers (TOL) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for TOL — the calendar windows where Toll Brothers has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
TOL seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, TOL's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +8.93% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, TOL has historically declined between Jun 9 – Jun 19, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -4.81%).
In total, our analysis finds 740 recurring seasonal windows for Toll Brothers — 553 bullish and 187 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 31 – Aug 30, opens in 4 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
TOL's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 11d ago | Jul 6 – Jul 16 | 10d | +4.06% | 80% | +0.61% |
| Completedended 45d ago | May 23 – Jun 12 | 20d | +4.55% | 90% | +9.51% |
| Upcomingin 4d | Jul 31 – Aug 30 | 30d | +4.50% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 6d | Aug 2 – Sep 1 | 30d | +5.75% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Aug 3 – Sep 2 | 30d | +5.48% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Aug 4 – Sep 3 | 30d | +4.52% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +5.24% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore TOL seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
TOL seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy TOL stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, TOL's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +8.93%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is TOL's strongest seasonal pattern?
TOL's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +8.93%.
When has TOL historically performed worst?
TOL's weakest recurring window has been Jun 9 to Jun 19, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -4.81%.
How reliable are TOL's seasonal patterns?
Each TOL pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. TOL currently shows 740 recurring windows (553 bullish, 187 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is TOL stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Toll Brothers's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where TOL has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.