Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for TSLA — the calendar windows where Tesla, Inc. has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
TSLA seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, TSLA's strongest seasonal window has been Sep 8 – Sep 18: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +10.59% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, TSLA has historically declined between Feb 16 – Mar 18, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -11.68%).
In total, our analysis finds 946 recurring seasonal windows for Tesla, Inc. — 745 bullish and 201 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 13 – Sep 12, opens in 17 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
TSLA's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 13d ago | Jul 4 – Jul 14 | 10d | +3.06% | 80% | +0.69% |
| Completedended 28d ago | Jun 9 – Jun 29 | 20d | +4.79% | 80% | +3.82% |
| Upcomingin 17d | Aug 13 – Sep 12 | 30d | +3.20% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 22d | Aug 18 – Sep 17 | 30d | +9.14% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 23d | Aug 19 – Sep 18 | 30d | +8.71% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 24d | Aug 20 – Sep 19 | 30d | +9.76% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 25d | Aug 21 – Sep 20 | 30d | +7.59% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore TSLA seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
TSLA seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy TSLA stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, TSLA's strongest seasonal window starts in September: Sep 8 to Sep 18, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +10.59%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is TSLA's strongest seasonal pattern?
TSLA's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Sep 8 – Sep 18 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +10.59%.
When has TSLA historically performed worst?
TSLA's weakest recurring window has been Feb 16 to Mar 18, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -11.68%.
How reliable are TSLA's seasonal patterns?
Each TSLA pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. TSLA currently shows 946 recurring windows (745 bullish, 201 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is TSLA stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Tesla, Inc.'s price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where TSLA has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.