Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for ULTA — the calendar windows where Ulta Beauty has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
ULTA seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, ULTA's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 2 – Dec 2: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +10.43% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, ULTA has historically declined between Jul 23 – Aug 2, falling in 10 of 10 years (average -4.31%).
In total, our analysis finds 709 recurring seasonal windows for Ulta Beauty — 460 bullish and 249 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 24 – Oct 24, opens in 13 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
ULTA's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 21d ago | Aug 1 – Aug 21 | 20d | +2.88% | 80% | +1.68% |
| Completedended 30d ago | Aug 2 – Aug 12 | 10d | +2.65% | 80% | +3.72% |
| Upcomingin 13d | Sep 24 – Oct 24 | 30d | -1.87% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 16d | Sep 27 – Oct 7 | 10d | -1.49% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 16d | Sep 27 – Oct 27 | 30d | -3.58% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 17d | Sep 28 – Oct 28 | 30d | -4.29% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 18d | Sep 29 – Oct 19 | 20d | -2.91% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore ULTA seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
ULTA seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy ULTA stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, ULTA's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 2 to Dec 2, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +10.43%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is ULTA's strongest seasonal pattern?
ULTA's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 2 – Dec 2 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +10.43%.
When has ULTA historically performed worst?
ULTA's weakest recurring window has been Jul 23 to Aug 2, declining in 10 of 10 years with an average return of -4.31%.
How reliable are ULTA's seasonal patterns?
Each ULTA pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. ULTA currently shows 709 recurring windows (460 bullish, 249 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is ULTA stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Ulta Beauty's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where ULTA has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.