United Parcel Service (UPS) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for UPS — the calendar windows where United Parcel Service has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
UPS seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, UPS's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 6 – Nov 16: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +2.90% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, UPS has historically declined between Apr 27 – May 7, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -1.52%).
In total, our analysis finds 583 recurring seasonal windows for United Parcel Service — 374 bullish and 209 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 30 – Aug 19, opens in 3 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
UPS's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 4 – Jul 24 | 20d | +2.13% | 80% | +3.11% |
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +4.02% | 80% | +7.50% |
| Upcomingin 3d | Jul 30 – Aug 19 | 20d | +2.71% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 4d | Jul 31 – Aug 20 | 20d | +2.29% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 4d | Jul 31 – Aug 30 | 30d | +2.36% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 5d | Aug 1 – Aug 31 | 30d | +2.82% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 6d | Aug 2 – Aug 22 | 20d | +2.94% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore UPS seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
UPS seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy UPS stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, UPS's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 6 to Nov 16, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +2.90%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is UPS's strongest seasonal pattern?
UPS's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 6 – Nov 16 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +2.90%.
When has UPS historically performed worst?
UPS's weakest recurring window has been Apr 27 to May 7, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -1.52%.
How reliable are UPS's seasonal patterns?
Each UPS pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. UPS currently shows 583 recurring windows (374 bullish, 209 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is UPS stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing United Parcel Service's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where UPS has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.