iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for USMV — the calendar windows where iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
USMV seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, USMV's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.29% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, USMV has historically declined between Sep 2 – Oct 2, falling in 6 of 10 years (average -1.82%).
In total, our analysis finds 389 recurring seasonal windows for iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF — 347 bullish and 42 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Oct 12 – Nov 11, opens in 31 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
USMV's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 6d ago | Aug 6 – Sep 5 | 30d | +1.18% | 80% | +0.80% |
| Completedended 7d ago | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +1.69% | 80% | +1.11% |
| Upcomingin 31d | Oct 12 – Nov 11 | 30d | +2.20% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 32d | Oct 13 – Nov 12 | 30d | +1.76% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 33d | Oct 14 – Nov 13 | 30d | +1.92% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 35d | Oct 16 – Nov 15 | 30d | +1.78% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 36d | Oct 17 – Nov 16 | 30d | +1.69% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore USMV seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
USMV seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy USMV stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, USMV's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.29%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is USMV's strongest seasonal pattern?
USMV's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.29%.
When has USMV historically performed worst?
USMV's weakest recurring window has been Sep 2 to Oct 2, declining in 6 of 10 years with an average return of -1.82%.
How reliable are USMV's seasonal patterns?
Each USMV pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. USMV currently shows 389 recurring windows (347 bullish, 42 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is USMV stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where USMV has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.