United States Oil Fund (USO) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for USO — the calendar windows where United States Oil Fund has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
USO seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, USO's strongest seasonal window has been May 4 – May 24: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +6.53% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, USO has historically declined between Apr 23 – May 3, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -4.16%).
In total, our analysis finds 718 recurring seasonal windows for United States Oil Fund — 426 bullish and 292 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Jul 31 – Aug 20, opens in 4 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
USO's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 67d ago | May 11 – May 21 | 10d | +4.54% | 90% | +2.80% |
| Completedended 68d ago | May 10 – May 20 | 10d | +4.31% | 80% | +7.99% |
| Upcomingin 4d | Jul 31 – Aug 20 | 20d | -2.14% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 11d | Aug 7 – Aug 27 | 20d | +2.62% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 12d | Aug 8 – Aug 28 | 20d | +2.10% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 13d | Aug 9 – Aug 29 | 20d | +2.48% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 20d | Aug 16 – Aug 26 | 10d | +2.07% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore USO seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
USO seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy USO stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, USO's strongest seasonal window starts in May: May 4 to May 24, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +6.53%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is USO's strongest seasonal pattern?
USO's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the May 4 – May 24 window (20-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +6.53%.
When has USO historically performed worst?
USO's weakest recurring window has been Apr 23 to May 3, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -4.16%.
How reliable are USO's seasonal patterns?
Each USO pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. USO currently shows 718 recurring windows (426 bullish, 292 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is USO stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing United States Oil Fund's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where USO has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.