Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VBR — the calendar windows where Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VBR seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VBR's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 27 – Nov 26: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +6.19% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, VBR has historically declined between Jun 12 – Jun 22, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -1.38%).
In total, our analysis finds 539 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF — 418 bullish and 121 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 19 – Aug 29, opens in 23 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VBR's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 14 – Jul 24 | 10d | +1.53% | 80% | +0.06% |
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +3.57% | 80% | +1.11% |
| Upcomingin 23d | Aug 19 – Aug 29 | 10d | +1.19% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 24d | Aug 20 – Aug 30 | 10d | +1.22% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 76d | Oct 11 – Nov 10 | 30d | +4.03% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 77d | Oct 12 – Nov 11 | 30d | +4.52% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 78d | Oct 13 – Nov 12 | 30d | +3.88% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VBR seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VBR seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VBR stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VBR's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 27 to Nov 26, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +6.19%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VBR's strongest seasonal pattern?
VBR's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 27 – Nov 26 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +6.19%.
When has VBR historically performed worst?
VBR's weakest recurring window has been Jun 12 to Jun 22, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -1.38%.
How reliable are VBR's seasonal patterns?
Each VBR pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VBR currently shows 539 recurring windows (418 bullish, 121 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VBR stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VBR has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.