Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral (VBTLX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VBTLX — the calendar windows where Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VBTLX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VBTLX's strongest seasonal window has been Nov 17 – Dec 7: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.07% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, VBTLX has historically declined between Sep 21 – Oct 21, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -1.17%).
In total, our analysis finds 24 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral — 13 bullish and 11 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 6 – Oct 6, opens in 41 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VBTLX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upcomingin 41d | Sep 6 – Oct 6 | 30d | -1.02% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 42d | Sep 7 – Oct 7 | 30d | -1.17% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 43d | Sep 8 – Oct 8 | 30d | -1.17% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 45d | Sep 10 – Oct 10 | 30d | -1.08% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 46d | Sep 11 – Oct 11 | 30d | -1.00% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VBTLX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VBTLX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VBTLX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VBTLX's strongest seasonal window starts in November: Nov 17 to Dec 7, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.07%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VBTLX's strongest seasonal pattern?
VBTLX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Nov 17 – Dec 7 window (20-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +1.07%.
When has VBTLX historically performed worst?
VBTLX's weakest recurring window has been Sep 21 to Oct 21, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -1.17%.
How reliable are VBTLX's seasonal patterns?
Each VBTLX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VBTLX currently shows 24 recurring windows (13 bullish, 11 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VBTLX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VBTLX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.