Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VCIT — the calendar windows where Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VCIT seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VCIT's strongest seasonal window has been Mar 21 – Mar 31: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.55% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, VCIT has historically declined between Sep 7 – Oct 7, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -1.12%).
In total, our analysis finds 101 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF — 83 bullish and 18 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 7 – Oct 7, opens in 42 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VCIT's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 10d ago | Jun 17 – Jul 17 | 30d | +1.03% | 90% | +0.06% |
| Completedended 23d ago | Jun 14 – Jul 4 | 20d | +1.03% | 80% | +0.27% |
| Upcomingin 42d | Sep 7 – Oct 7 | 30d | -1.12% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 99d | Nov 3 – Dec 3 | 30d | +1.30% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 102d | Nov 6 – Dec 6 | 30d | +1.11% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 104d | Nov 8 – Dec 8 | 30d | +1.02% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 105d | Nov 9 – Dec 9 | 30d | +1.11% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VCIT seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VCIT seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VCIT stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VCIT's strongest seasonal window starts in March: Mar 21 to Mar 31, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.55%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VCIT's strongest seasonal pattern?
VCIT's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Mar 21 – Mar 31 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +1.55%.
When has VCIT historically performed worst?
VCIT's weakest recurring window has been Sep 7 to Oct 7, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -1.12%.
How reliable are VCIT's seasonal patterns?
Each VCIT pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VCIT currently shows 101 recurring windows (83 bullish, 18 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VCIT stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VCIT has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.