Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VCSH — the calendar windows where Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VCSH seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VCSH's strongest seasonal window has been Mar 21 – Mar 31: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.11% across a 10-day hold. On the weak side, VCSH has historically declined between Feb 27 – Mar 19, falling in 5 of 10 years (average -1.17%).
In total, our analysis finds 17 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF — 12 bullish and 5 bearish. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VCSH's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 98d ago | Mar 21 – Apr 20 | 30d | +1.26% | 80% | +1.13% |
| Completedended 99d ago | Mar 20 – Apr 19 | 30d | +1.28% | 80% | +1.15% |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VCSH seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VCSH seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VCSH stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VCSH's strongest seasonal window starts in March: Mar 21 to Mar 31, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +1.11%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VCSH's strongest seasonal pattern?
VCSH's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Mar 21 – Mar 31 window (10-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +1.11%.
When has VCSH historically performed worst?
VCSH's weakest recurring window has been Feb 27 to Mar 19, declining in 5 of 10 years with an average return of -1.17%.
How reliable are VCSH's seasonal patterns?
Each VCSH pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VCSH currently shows 17 recurring windows (12 bullish, 5 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VCSH stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VCSH has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.