Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VFIAX — the calendar windows where Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VFIAX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VFIAX's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.99% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, VFIAX has historically declined between Feb 15 – Mar 7, falling in 7 of 10 years (average -2.06%).
In total, our analysis finds 529 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares — 467 bullish and 62 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 2 – Sep 1, opens in 6 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VFIAX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 4d ago | Jun 23 – Jul 23 | 30d | +3.24% | 100% | +0.64% |
| Completedended 5d ago | Jul 2 – Jul 22 | 20d | +2.22% | 100% | +0.25% |
| Upcomingin 6d | Aug 2 – Sep 1 | 30d | +2.21% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Aug 3 – Sep 2 | 30d | +1.92% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Aug 4 – Sep 3 | 30d | +1.20% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +1.75% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Aug 6 – Sep 5 | 30d | +1.24% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VFIAX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VFIAX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VFIAX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VFIAX's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.99%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VFIAX's strongest seasonal pattern?
VFIAX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.99%.
When has VFIAX historically performed worst?
VFIAX's weakest recurring window has been Feb 15 to Mar 7, declining in 7 of 10 years with an average return of -2.06%.
How reliable are VFIAX's seasonal patterns?
Each VFIAX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VFIAX currently shows 529 recurring windows (467 bullish, 62 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VFIAX stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VFIAX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.