Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Admiral (VSMAX) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VSMAX — the calendar windows where Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Admiral has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VSMAX seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VSMAX's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +5.62% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, VSMAX has historically declined between Mar 5 – Mar 15, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -2.55%).
In total, our analysis finds 548 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Admiral — 435 bullish and 113 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Oct 11 – Nov 10, opens in 30 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VSMAX's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 36d ago | Jul 7 – Aug 6 | 30d | +2.36% | 90% | +1.19% |
| Completedended 43d ago | Jul 20 – Jul 30 | 10d | +1.10% | 80% | +0.50% |
| Upcomingin 30d | Oct 11 – Nov 10 | 30d | +3.34% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 31d | Oct 12 – Nov 11 | 30d | +3.90% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 36d | Oct 17 – Nov 16 | 30d | +2.74% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 37d | Oct 18 – Nov 17 | 30d | +2.76% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 38d | Oct 19 – Nov 8 | 20d | +2.10% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VSMAX seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VSMAX seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VSMAX stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VSMAX's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +5.62%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VSMAX's strongest seasonal pattern?
VSMAX's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +5.62%.
When has VSMAX historically performed worst?
VSMAX's weakest recurring window has been Mar 5 to Mar 15, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -2.55%.
How reliable are VSMAX's seasonal patterns?
Each VSMAX pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VSMAX currently shows 548 recurring windows (435 bullish, 113 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VSMAX stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Admiral's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VSMAX has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.