Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VTI — the calendar windows where Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VTI seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VTI's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.27% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, VTI has historically declined between Feb 22 – Mar 24, falling in 7 of 10 years (average -2.45%).
In total, our analysis finds 518 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF — 448 bullish and 70 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 2 – Sep 1, opens in 6 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VTI's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +3.32% | 100% | +0.57% |
| Completedended 4d ago | Jun 23 – Jul 23 | 30d | +3.28% | 100% | +0.56% |
| Upcomingin 6d | Aug 2 – Sep 1 | 30d | +2.24% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 7d | Aug 3 – Sep 2 | 30d | +1.96% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 8d | Aug 4 – Sep 3 | 30d | +1.19% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 9d | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +1.70% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 10d | Aug 6 – Sep 5 | 30d | +1.20% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VTI seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VTI seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VTI stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VTI's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.27%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VTI's strongest seasonal pattern?
VTI's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.27%.
When has VTI historically performed worst?
VTI's weakest recurring window has been Feb 22 to Mar 24, declining in 7 of 10 years with an average return of -2.45%.
How reliable are VTI's seasonal patterns?
Each VTI pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VTI currently shows 518 recurring windows (448 bullish, 70 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VTI stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VTI has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.